Pricing experiments with small samples: what you can actually learn
A plain-English guide to running pricing tests when your traffic or customer count is small, what small samples can tell you, and what they can’t.
General
Fallback category for posts that have not yet been assigned to a primary topical category.
What to do when your tracking broke last month
A practical walkthrough of broken tracking backfill: how to find when your analytics broke, what you can honestly reconstruct, and what you have to let go.
Bayes theorem for founders: how to update your beliefs without fooling yourself
A plain English walkthrough of Bayes theorem for solo founders, with concrete examples for reading churn alerts, A/B tests, and small-sample dashboards without overreacting to noise.
The base rate fallacy: why rare good news looks more common than it is
A plain-English guide to the base rate fallacy: what it is, why solo operators fall for it in churn models, fraud alerts, and A/B tests, and how to correct for it without needing a stats degree.
How to size a sample without a statistician
A plain-English guide to how to size a sample for A/B tests and business experiments when you’re running the numbers yourself, no statistics degree required.
Handling outliers: the practical guide for solo founders who watch their own numbers
A plain-English guide to spotting outliers in your business data, telling errors from real extreme values, and deciding what to actually do about them.
Regression Analysis Explained: Drawing The Line Through Your Data (2026)
Regression analysis in plain English: how the line of best fit turns one number into a prediction, what the slope and r squared mean, and where the line lies.
When a seasonal pattern is really a reporting artefact
How to tell a genuine seasonal pattern in your metrics from a reporting artefact caused by billing cycles, timezones, or pipeline quirks, with a practical checklist for solo operators.
Revenue Forecasting For Solopreneurs: Build An Honest One (2026)
How to build an honest revenue forecast for a small business: the run rate baseline, forecasting your drivers, adding growth without fooling yourself, and always a range.
Simpson’s Paradox Explained: When The Total Lies (2026)
Simpson’s paradox in plain English: how a trend reverses when you pool your groups, why a hidden confounder causes it, and how to catch it in your own data.